?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo pick
64%55%
Leo · 18 mapsedge Leo +9%Inner Circle Academy · 18 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%40%
Leo · 10 mapsedge Leo +17%Inner Circle Academy · 16 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
33%60%
Leo · 11 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +27%Inner Circle Academy · 11 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
55%46%
Leo · 7 mapsedge Leo +9%Inner Circle Academy · 9 maps
MirageLeo ban
50%58%
Leo · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +8%Inner Circle Academy · 8 maps
CacheLeo ban
50%57%
Leo · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
60%40%
Leo · 1 mapedge Leo +20%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Mirage
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickLeo take Dust2
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanLeo remove Cache
DeciderAncient (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed12:16
Leo 56%Inner Circle Academy 44%
The model gave 56% on Leo — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Leo 61%Inner Circle Academy 39%
The model gave 61% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Leo 67%Inner Circle Academy 33%
The model gave 67% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 57%
Series resultLeo 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3