ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
64%45%
BASEMENT BOYS · 10 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +19%Fire Flux · 7 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
63%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 12 mapsnearly even -4%Fire Flux · 2 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Fire Flux · 4 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
67%57%
BASEMENT BOYS · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Fire Flux · 3 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
56%70%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge Fire Flux +14%Fire Flux · 6 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge Fire Flux +10%Fire Flux · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge Fire Flux +10%Fire Flux · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
DeciderCache (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed19:17
BASEMENT BOYS 37%Fire Flux 63%
The model gave 63% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
BASEMENT BOYS 63%Fire Flux 37%
The model gave 63% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 56%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2