IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoHEROIC pick
42%67%
3DMAX · 8 mapsedge HEROIC +25%HEROIC · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
55%55%
3DMAX · 7 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC · 7 maps
Nuke3DMAX ban
25%46%
3DMAX · 4 mapsedge HEROIC +21%HEROIC · 9 maps
Dust2HEROIC ban
56%55%
3DMAX · 5 mapsnearly even +1%HEROIC · 7 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
55%38%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge 3DMAX +17%HEROIC · 4 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%78%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +28%HEROIC · 5 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%50%
3DMAX · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. PickHEROIC take Inferno
5. BanHEROIC remove Dust2
6. Ban3DMAX remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (55% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
3DMAX 69%HEROIC 31%
The model gave 69% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
3DMAX 24%HEROIC 76%
The model gave 76% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
3DMAX 51%HEROIC 49%
The model gave 51% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 51%
Series resultHEROIC 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3