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IEM Beijing 2026 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#98 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FlyQuest#60 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
71%56%
Rare Atom · 10 mapsedge Rare Atom +15%FlyQuest · 5 maps
InfernoRare Atom ban
44%70%
Rare Atom · 5 mapsedge FlyQuest +26%FlyQuest · 6 maps
AncientFlyQuest ban
50%50%
Rare Atom · 8 mapsnearly even +0%FlyQuest · 0 maps
AnubisFlyQuest pick
60%70%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge FlyQuest +10%FlyQuest · 6 maps
CacheRare Atom pick
64%50%
Rare Atom · 7 mapsedge Rare Atom +14%FlyQuest · 0 maps
MirageFlyQuest ban
63%40%
Rare Atom · 4 mapsedge Rare Atom +23%FlyQuest · 1 map
NukeRare Atom ban
50%57%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest +7%FlyQuest · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
2. BanFlyQuest remove Mirage
3. PickRare Atom take Cache
4. PickFlyQuest take Anubis
5. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
6. BanRare Atom remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (71% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Rare Atom 69%FlyQuest 31%
The model gave 69% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Anubisprediction correct14:16
Rare Atom 36%FlyQuest 64%
The model gave 64% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
Rare Atom 26%FlyQuest 74%
The model gave 74% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 64%
Series resultRare Atom 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3