IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga#46 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
68%43%
HOTU · 18 mapsedge HOTU +25%Nemiga · 10 maps
AncientNemiga ban
58%33%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +25%Nemiga · 8 maps
CacheNemiga ban
63%60%
HOTU · 15 mapsnearly even +3%Nemiga · 1 map
AnubisNemiga pick
71%67%
HOTU · 10 mapsnearly even +4%Nemiga · 5 maps
NukeHOTU ban
67%56%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +11%Nemiga · 5 maps
MirageHOTU ban
55%57%
HOTU · 7 mapsnearly even -2%Nemiga · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%40%
HOTU · 1 mapedge HOTU +20%Nemiga · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Mirage
2. BanNemiga remove Ancient
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickNemiga take Anubis
5. BanNemiga remove Cache
6. BanHOTU remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
HOTU 71%Nemiga 29%
The model gave 71% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
HOTU 56%Nemiga 44%
The model gave 56% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 68%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2