IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#23 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BIG#24 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernopaiN ban
45%57%
paiN · 7 mapsedge BIG +12%BIG · 10 maps
MirageBIG ban
40%36%
paiN · 6 mapsnearly even +4%BIG · 10 maps
NukeBIG ban
53%57%
paiN · 13 mapsnearly even -4%BIG · 3 maps
AncientpaiN ban
50%64%
paiN · 0 mapsedge BIG +14%BIG · 10 maps
CacheBIG pick
22%67%
paiN · 5 mapsedge BIG +45%BIG · 5 maps
Dust2paiN pick
50%50%
paiN · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BIG · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%43%
paiN · 2 mapsedge paiN +7%BIG · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Ancient
2. BanBIG remove Nuke
3. PickpaiN take Dust2
4. PickBIG take Cache
5. BanBIG remove Mirage
6. BanpaiN remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
paiN 53%BIG 47%
The model gave 53% on paiN — the map was taken by BIG.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
paiN 11%BIG 89%
The model gave 89% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 55%
Series resultBIG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2