IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DENDELE#35 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2DENDELE ban
69%50%
Color · 12 mapsedge Color +19%DENDELE · 0 maps
MirageColor pick
67%38%
Color · 8 mapsedge Color +29%DENDELE · 4 maps
AncientDENDELE ban
58%29%
Color · 8 mapsedge Color +29%DENDELE · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
44%50%
Color · 5 mapsedge DENDELE +6%DENDELE · 6 maps
AnubisDENDELE pick
56%71%
Color · 5 mapsedge DENDELE +15%DENDELE · 3 maps
InfernoColor ban
50%50%
Color · 4 mapsnearly even +0%DENDELE · 2 maps
NukeColor ban
50%50%
Color · 0 mapsnearly even +0%DENDELE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanColor remove Nuke
2. BanDENDELE remove Dust2
3. PickColor take Mirage
4. PickDENDELE take Anubis
5. BanDENDELE remove Ancient
6. BanColor remove Inferno
DeciderCache (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Color 79%DENDELE 21%
The model gave 79% on Color — the map was taken by Color.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
Color 42%DENDELE 58%
The model gave 58% on DENDELE — the map was taken by DENDELE.
Anubisprediction missed13:4
Color 33%DENDELE 67%
The model gave 67% on DENDELE — the map was taken by Color.
Model check result
Model favoriteDENDELE · 66%
Series resultColor 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3