IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#34 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga#46 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemiga ban
59%29%
K27 · 13 mapsedge K27 +30%Nemiga · 10 maps
MirageK27 pick
65%63%
K27 · 16 mapsnearly even +2%Nemiga · 4 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
62%43%
K27 · 9 mapsedge K27 +19%Nemiga · 10 maps
NukeK27 ban
29%60%
K27 · 13 mapsedge Nemiga +31%Nemiga · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
53%50%
K27 · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Nemiga · 2 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
50%67%
K27 · 6 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Nemiga · 5 maps
DefaultK27 ban
33%40%
K27 · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +7%Nemiga · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Nuke
2. BanNemiga remove Ancient
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickNemiga take Anubis
5. BanNemiga remove Dust2
6. BanK27 remove Default
DeciderCache (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
K27 43%Nemiga 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga — the map was taken by K27.
Mirageprediction correct16:12
K27 56%Nemiga 44%
The model gave 56% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 62%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2