IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#27 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:1
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
68%67%
HOTU · 18 mapsnearly even +1%HEROIC · 8 maps
CacheHOTU pick
62%33%
HOTU · 17 mapsedge HOTU +29%HEROIC · 5 maps
AncientHOTU ban
62%62%
HOTU · 9 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC · 9 maps
NukeHEROIC ban
69%50%
HOTU · 9 mapsedge HOTU +19%HEROIC · 8 maps
MirageHEROIC pick
50%70%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HEROIC +20%HEROIC · 6 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
71%50%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +21%HEROIC · 0 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%64%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +14%HEROIC · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickHEROIC take Mirage
5. BanHEROIC remove Nuke
6. BanHOTU remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (68% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
HOTU 50%HEROIC 50%
The model gave 50% on HOTU — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 61%
Series resultHEROIC 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1