Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9z#17 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FURIA ban
50%60%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge 9z +10%9z · 11 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%57%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge 9z +7%9z · 10 maps
MirageFURIA pick
67%42%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge FURIA +25%9z · 8 maps
Overpass9z pick
71%67%
FURIA · 3 mapsnearly even +4%9z · 8 maps
Nuke9z ban
57%55%
FURIA · 3 mapsnearly even +2%9z · 7 maps
AncientFURIA ban
50%43%
FURIA · 0 mapsedge FURIA +7%9z · 3 maps
Anubis9z ban
33%50%
FURIA · 2 mapsedge 9z +17%9z · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Ancient
2. Ban9z remove Anubis
3. PickFURIA take Mirage
4. Pick9z take Overpass
5. Ban9z remove Nuke
6. BanFURIA remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
FURIA 37%9z 63%
The model gave 63% on 9z — the map was taken by FURIA.
Mirageprediction missed13:16
FURIA 76%9z 24%
The model gave 76% on FURIA — the map was taken by 9z.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
FURIA 53%9z 47%
The model gave 53% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 73%
Series resultFURIA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3