Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Metizport#52 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoJohnny Speeds pick
50%69%
Metizport · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +19%Johnny Speeds · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
56%60%
Metizport · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
MirageMetizport pick
57%40%
Metizport · 3 mapsedge Metizport +17%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
50%42%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge Metizport +8%Johnny Speeds · 8 maps
AnubisJohnny Speeds ban
60%50%
Metizport · 1 mapedge Metizport +10%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
AncientMetizport ban
50%50%
Metizport · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
50%50%
Metizport · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Johnny Speeds · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Dust2
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
3. PickMetizport take Mirage
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Inferno
5. BanJohnny Speeds remove Anubis
6. BanMetizport remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (56% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Metizport 64%Johnny Speeds 36%
The model gave 64% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Metizport 53%Johnny Speeds 47%
The model gave 53% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 56%
Series resultMetizport 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2