Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lilmix ban
56%36%
fnatic · 12 mapsedge fnatic +20%Lilmix · 7 maps
Ancientfnatic ban
64%31%
fnatic · 7 mapsedge fnatic +33%Lilmix · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%25%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge fnatic +42%Lilmix · 8 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
53%50%
fnatic · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Lilmix · 2 maps
Infernofnatic pick
80%54%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge fnatic +26%Lilmix · 9 maps
Overpassfnatic ban
33%44%
fnatic · 2 mapsedge Lilmix +11%Lilmix · 5 maps
CacheLilmix pick
57%43%
fnatic · 3 mapsedge fnatic +14%Lilmix · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Overpass
2. BanLilmix remove Anubis
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickLilmix take Cache
5. BanLilmix remove Dust2
6. Banfnatic remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (67% / 25%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
fnatic 61%Lilmix 39%
The model gave 61% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
fnatic 82%Lilmix 18%
The model gave 82% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 75%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2