StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
56%64%
NRG · 5 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +8%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%70%
NRG · 8 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +20%SportsBetExpert · 6 maps
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
57%40%
NRG · 3 mapsedge NRG +17%SportsBetExpert · 6 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
36%60%
NRG · 7 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +24%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
MirageNRG ban
44%57%
NRG · 5 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +13%SportsBetExpert · 3 maps
AnubisNRG ban
50%78%
NRG · 0 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +28%SportsBetExpert · 5 maps
CacheNRG pick
71%33%
NRG · 3 mapsedge NRG +38%SportsBetExpert · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Anubis
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickNRG take Cache
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
6. BanNRG remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (50% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
NRG 28%SportsBetExpert 72%
The model gave 72% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by NRG.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
NRG 85%SportsBetExpert 15%
The model gave 85% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 78%
Series resultNRG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2