ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Abyssal#157 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAbyssal pick
50%67%
5dads · 0 mapsedge Abyssal +17%Abyssal · 8 maps
Dust25dads pick
67%63%
5dads · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Abyssal · 4 maps
InfernoAbyssal ban
50%44%
5dads · 0 mapsedge 5dads +6%Abyssal · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%50%
5dads · 2 mapsedge 5dads +17%Abyssal · 2 maps
Nuke5dads ban
50%43%
5dads · 0 mapsedge 5dads +7%Abyssal · 3 maps
Cache5dads ban
40%60%
5dads · 1 mapedge Abyssal +20%Abyssal · 1 map
AnubisAbyssal ban
50%40%
5dads · 0 mapsedge 5dads +10%Abyssal · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5dads remove Nuke
2. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
3. Pick5dads take Dust2
4. PickAbyssal take Mirage
5. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
6. Ban5dads remove Cache
DeciderAncient (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
5dads 58%Abyssal 42%
The model gave 58% on 5dads — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
5dads 31%Abyssal 69%
The model gave 69% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 61%
Series resultAbyssal 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2