GGMEDIA Challenger Series 1: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#35 in the world · win 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Alter Ego#120 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
43%50%
5star · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +7%Alter Ego · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%63%
5star · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Alter Ego · 4 maps
AnubisAlter Ego ban
43%40%
5star · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Alter Ego · 1 map
InfernoAlter Ego ban
75%50%
5star · 4 mapsedge 5star +25%Alter Ego · 0 maps
Overpass5star ban
33%50%
5star · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Alter Ego · 2 maps
Ancient5star pick
57%50%
5star · 3 mapsedge 5star +7%Alter Ego · 0 maps
Mirage5star ban
50%50%
5star · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Mirage
2. BanAlter Ego remove Inferno
3. Pick5star take Ancient
4. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
5. BanAlter Ego remove Anubis
6. Ban5star remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (67% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
5star 47%Alter Ego 53%
The model gave 53% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by 5star.
Ancientprediction missed0:13
5star 60%Alter Ego 40%
The model gave 60% on 5star — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Anubisprediction correct16:14
5star 53%Alter Ego 47%
The model gave 53% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 63%
Series result5star 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3