MESA Pro Series Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#35 in the world · win 2:1series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
53%56%
5star · 15 mapsnearly even -3%Chinggis Warriors · 14 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
53%64%
5star · 15 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +11%Chinggis Warriors · 10 maps
Ancient5star ban
26%45%
5star · 15 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +19%Chinggis Warriors · 7 maps
Cache5star pick
57%50%
5star · 10 mapsedge 5star +7%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
MirageChinggis Warriors ban
67%50%
5star · 8 mapsedge 5star +17%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
Dust25star ban
50%54%
5star · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Chinggis Warriors · 9 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
75%29%
5star · 4 mapsedge 5star +46%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Dust2
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. Pick5star take Cache
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Mirage
6. Ban5star remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (53% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
5star 28%Chinggis Warriors 72%
The model gave 72% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
5star 41%Chinggis Warriors 59%
The model gave 59% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by 5star.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
5star 47%Chinggis Warriors 53%
The model gave 53% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 85%
Series result5star 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3