IEM Beijing 2026 Asia Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#35 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kaleido#154 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
25%43%
5star · 4 mapsedge Kaleido +18%Kaleido · 3 maps
Inferno5star ban
38%43%
5star · 4 mapsedge Kaleido +5%Kaleido · 3 maps
Cache5star pick
63%40%
5star · 4 mapsedge 5star +23%Kaleido · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
5star · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Kaleido · 2 maps
Dust25star ban
50%57%
5star · 0 mapsedge Kaleido +7%Kaleido · 3 maps
NukeKaleido ban
57%50%
5star · 3 mapsedge 5star +7%Kaleido · 0 maps
AnubisKaleido ban
60%50%
5star · 1 mapedge 5star +10%Kaleido · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Dust2
2. BanKaleido remove Nuke
3. Pick5star take Cache
4. PickKaleido take Ancient
5. BanKaleido remove Anubis
6. Ban5star remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
5star 28%Kaleido 72%
The model gave 72% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
5star 60%Kaleido 40%
The model gave 60% on 5star — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 64%
Series resultKaleido 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2