ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#35 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient5star ban
25%50%
5star · 8 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +25%Vitalem Aerem · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
45%43%
5star · 7 mapsnearly even +2%Vitalem Aerem · 3 maps
Nuke5star pick
60%33%
5star · 6 mapsedge 5star +27%Vitalem Aerem · 2 maps
CacheVitalem Aerem ban
56%50%
5star · 5 mapsedge 5star +6%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
Dust25star ban
50%63%
5star · 0 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +13%Vitalem Aerem · 4 maps
MirageVitalem Aerem ban
63%50%
5star · 4 mapsedge 5star +13%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
AnubisVitalem Aerem pick
60%60%
5star · 1 mapnearly even +0%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Dust2
2. BanVitalem Aerem remove Mirage
3. Pick5star take Nuke
4. PickVitalem Aerem take Anubis
5. BanVitalem Aerem remove Cache
6. Ban5star remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (45% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
5star 23%Vitalem Aerem 77%
The model gave 77% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
5star 77%Vitalem Aerem 23%
The model gave 77% on 5star — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 62%
Series resultVitalem Aerem 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2