DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Mindfreak#213 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FURYwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFURY ban
56%50%
Mindfreak · 5 mapsedge Mindfreak +6%FURY · 0 maps
NukeMindfreak pick
50%50%
Mindfreak · 4 mapsnearly even +0%FURY · 0 maps
AnubisMindfreak ban
40%50%
Mindfreak · 1 mapedge FURY +10%FURY · 0 maps
MirageFURY pick
40%50%
Mindfreak · 1 mapedge FURY +10%FURY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMindfreak remove Anubis
2. BanFURY remove Inferno
3. PickMindfreak take Nuke
4. PickFURY take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
Mindfreak 37%FURY 63%
The model gave 63% on FURY — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
Mindfreak 58%FURY 42%
The model gave 58% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by FURY.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Mindfreak 40%FURY 60%
The model gave 60% on FURY — the map was taken by FURY.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURY · 50%
Series resultFURY 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3