ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
los kogutos#123 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFortress pick
56%58%
Fortress · 5 mapsnearly even -2%los kogutos · 8 maps
MirageFortress ban
29%45%
Fortress · 3 mapsedge los kogutos +16%los kogutos · 7 maps
Nukelos kogutos pick
38%70%
Fortress · 4 mapsedge los kogutos +32%los kogutos · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
25%29%
Fortress · 4 mapsnearly even -4%los kogutos · 3 maps
Dust2los kogutos ban
60%40%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Fortress +20%los kogutos · 6 maps
Infernolos kogutos ban
40%50%
Fortress · 6 mapsedge los kogutos +10%los kogutos · 0 maps
AnubisFortress ban
50%50%
Fortress · 2 mapsnearly even +0%los kogutos · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Mirage
2. Banlos kogutos remove Inferno
3. PickFortress take Ancient
4. Picklos kogutos take Nuke
5. Banlos kogutos remove Dust2
6. BanFortress remove Anubis
DeciderCache (25% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct3:13
Fortress 48%los kogutos 52%
The model gave 52% on los kogutos — the map was taken by los kogutos.
Nukeprediction correct2:13
Fortress 19%los kogutos 81%
The model gave 81% on los kogutos — the map was taken by los kogutos.
Model check result
Model favoritelos kogutos · 50%
Series resultlos kogutos 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2