CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%66%
SINNERS · 4 mapsedge SPARTA +16%SPARTA · 34 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
30%40%
SINNERS · 6 mapsedge SPARTA +10%SPARTA · 21 map
MirageSINNERS pick
50%50%
SINNERS · 6 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 20 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
33%42%
SINNERS · 2 mapsedge SPARTA +9%SPARTA · 15 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
38%50%
SINNERS · 4 mapsedge SPARTA +12%SPARTA · 12 maps
CacheSINNERS ban
40%50%
SINNERS · 1 mapedge SPARTA +10%SPARTA · 6 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%44%
SINNERS · 1 mapedge SINNERS +16%SPARTA · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
2. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
3. PickSINNERS take Mirage
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
6. BanSINNERS remove Cache
DeciderOverpass (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
SINNERS 32%SPARTA 68%
The model gave 68% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
SINNERS 53%SPARTA 47%
The model gave 53% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
SINNERS 40%SPARTA 60%
The model gave 60% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 60%
Series resultSINNERS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3