ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Noir Verse#124 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageDragonClaw pick
67%56%
DragonClaw · 2 mapsedge DragonClaw +11%Noir Verse · 5 maps
NukeDragonClaw ban
50%55%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge Noir Verse +5%Noir Verse · 7 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%50%
DragonClaw · 2 mapsedge DragonClaw +17%Noir Verse · 4 maps
Dust2Noir Verse ban
33%38%
DragonClaw · 2 mapsedge Noir Verse +5%Noir Verse · 4 maps
AncientDragonClaw ban
50%33%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge DragonClaw +17%Noir Verse · 5 maps
DefaultNoir Verse pick
22%50%
DragonClaw · 5 mapsedge Noir Verse +28%Noir Verse · 0 maps
OverpassNoir Verse ban
50%40%
DragonClaw · 2 mapsedge DragonClaw +10%Noir Verse · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDragonClaw remove Ancient
2. BanNoir Verse remove Dust2
3. PickDragonClaw take Mirage
4. PickNoir Verse take Default
5. BanNoir Verse remove Overpass
6. BanDragonClaw remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
DragonClaw 22%Noir Verse 78%
The model gave 78% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragonClaw · 56%
Series resultNoir Verse 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1