NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
53%67%
ex-RUSTEC · 15 mapsedge Butterfly +14%Butterfly · 5 maps
NukeButterfly pick
46%67%
ex-RUSTEC · 9 mapsedge Butterfly +21%Butterfly · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
70%70%
ex-RUSTEC · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Butterfly · 6 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
58%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 8 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +18%Butterfly · 1 map
InfernoButterfly ban
44%25%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +19%Butterfly · 4 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
56%60%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Butterfly · 1 map
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%78%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +28%Butterfly · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickButterfly take Nuke
5. BanButterfly remove Inferno
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
DeciderMirage (70% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
ex-RUSTEC 48%Butterfly 52%
The model gave 52% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Nukeprediction missed16:14
ex-RUSTEC 28%Butterfly 72%
The model gave 72% on Butterfly — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
ex-RUSTEC 36%Butterfly 64%
The model gave 64% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 60%
Series resultButterfly 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3