Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Betclic#65 in the world · win 2:1series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Liquid#27 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisBetclic pick
67%64%
Betclic · 14 mapsnearly even +3%Liquid · 7 maps
NukeLiquid pick
40%67%
Betclic · 16 mapsedge Liquid +27%Liquid · 5 maps
Dust2Liquid ban
42%30%
Betclic · 8 mapsedge Betclic +12%Liquid · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%43%
Betclic · 8 mapsedge Betclic +7%Liquid · 3 maps
AncientLiquid ban
55%50%
Betclic · 7 mapsedge Betclic +5%Liquid · 2 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
29%57%
Betclic · 3 mapsedge Liquid +28%Liquid · 3 maps
OverpassBetclic ban
30%50%
Betclic · 6 mapsedge Liquid +20%Liquid · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBetclic remove Inferno
2. BanLiquid remove Ancient
3. PickBetclic take Anubis
4. PickLiquid take Nuke
5. BanLiquid remove Dust2
6. BanBetclic remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
Betclic 53%Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Betclic — the map was taken by Liquid.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Betclic 50%Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Betclic 25%Liquid 75%
The model gave 75% on Liquid — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 77%
Series resultBetclic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3