Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:1series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BIG#27 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
64%42%
Spirit · 10 mapsedge Spirit +22%BIG · 8 maps
Dust2Spirit pick
63%57%
Spirit · 12 mapsedge Spirit +6%BIG · 3 maps
AncientSpirit ban
75%69%
Spirit · 4 mapsedge Spirit +6%BIG · 9 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%57%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge BIG +7%BIG · 10 maps
AnubisBIG ban
70%60%
Spirit · 6 mapsedge Spirit +10%BIG · 1 map
NukeBIG ban
57%50%
Spirit · 3 mapsedge Spirit +7%BIG · 4 maps
CacheBIG pick
50%63%
Spirit · 2 mapsedge BIG +13%BIG · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanBIG remove Anubis
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. PickBIG take Cache
5. BanBIG remove Nuke
6. BanSpirit remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (64% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
Spirit 35%BIG 65%
The model gave 65% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Spirit 58%BIG 42%
The model gave 58% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Spirit 72%BIG 28%
The model gave 72% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 85%
Series resultSpirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3