Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MAYBE#173 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eSuba#293 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncienteSuba pick
40%50%
MAYBE · 1 mapedge eSuba +10%eSuba · 2 maps
AnubiseSuba ban
40%33%
MAYBE · 1 mapedge MAYBE +7%eSuba · 2 maps
Dust2MAYBE pick
50%29%
MAYBE · 0 mapsedge MAYBE +21%eSuba · 3 maps
InfernoMAYBE ban
50%57%
MAYBE · 0 mapsedge eSuba +7%eSuba · 3 maps
NukeMAYBE ban
50%50%
MAYBE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%eSuba · 2 maps
MirageeSuba ban
50%60%
MAYBE · 0 mapsedge eSuba +10%eSuba · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMAYBE remove Inferno
2. BaneSuba remove Anubis
3. PickMAYBE take Dust2
4. PickeSuba take Ancient
5. BaneSuba remove Mirage
6. BanMAYBE remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
MAYBE 47%eSuba 53%
The model gave 53% on eSuba — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
MAYBE 43%eSuba 57%
The model gave 57% on eSuba — the map was taken by eSuba.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
MAYBE 57%eSuba 43%
The model gave 57% on MAYBE — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Model check result
Model favoriteeSuba · 50%
Series resultMAYBE 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3