Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisLiquid pick
60%56%
Liquid · 6 mapsnearly even +4%fnatic · 14 maps
Dust2Liquid ban
22%56%
Liquid · 5 mapsedge fnatic +34%fnatic · 12 maps
AncientLiquid ban
50%64%
Liquid · 2 mapsedge fnatic +14%fnatic · 10 maps
Miragefnatic ban
43%69%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge fnatic +26%fnatic · 9 maps
Infernofnatic pick
57%80%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge fnatic +23%fnatic · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%67%
Liquid · 2 mapsedge fnatic +17%fnatic · 5 maps
Nukefnatic ban
67%50%
Liquid · 5 mapsedge Liquid +17%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Ancient
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickLiquid take Anubis
4. Pickfnatic take Inferno
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanLiquid remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Liquid 16%fnatic 84%
The model gave 84% on fnatic — the map was taken by Liquid.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Liquid 58%fnatic 42%
The model gave 58% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 71%
Series resultLiquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2