Kibertochka Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit Academy#111 in the world · win 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSpirit Academy ban
29%53%
Spirit Academy · 3 mapsedge Just Players +24%Just Players · 30 maps
Dust2possible decider
54%37%
Spirit Academy · 9 mapsedge Spirit Academy +17%Just Players · 23 maps
AncientSpirit Academy pick
78%64%
Spirit Academy · 5 mapsedge Spirit Academy +14%Just Players · 21 map
NukeJust Players ban
50%31%
Spirit Academy · 4 mapsedge Spirit Academy +19%Just Players · 12 maps
CacheJust Players ban
50%33%
Spirit Academy · 2 mapsedge Spirit Academy +17%Just Players · 8 maps
AnubisSpirit Academy ban
60%45%
Spirit Academy · 1 mapedge Spirit Academy +15%Just Players · 7 maps
DefaultJust Players pick
50%60%
Spirit Academy · 0 mapsedge Just Players +10%Just Players · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit Academy remove Mirage
2. BanJust Players remove Cache
3. PickSpirit Academy take Ancient
4. PickJust Players take Default
5. BanJust Players remove Nuke
6. BanSpirit Academy remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (54% / 37%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Spirit Academy 71%Just Players 29%
The model gave 71% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by Just Players.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Spirit Academy 24%Just Players 76%
The model gave 76% on Just Players — the map was taken by Spirit Academy.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Spirit Academy 66%Just Players 34%
The model gave 66% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by Spirit Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 64%
Series resultSpirit Academy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3