ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMai Tai pick
60%43%
Bushido Wildcats · 6 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +17%Mai Tai · 10 maps
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
69%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 12 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +19%Mai Tai · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%36%
Bushido Wildcats · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +31%Mai Tai · 10 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
20%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 6 mapsedge Mai Tai +40%Mai Tai · 1 map
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
40%33%
Bushido Wildcats · 1 mapedge Bushido Wildcats +7%Mai Tai · 5 maps
AnubisMai Tai ban
50%40%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +10%Mai Tai · 1 map
InfernoMai Tai ban
50%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Mai Tai · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
2. BanMai Tai remove Inferno
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickMai Tai take Mirage
5. BanMai Tai remove Anubis
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (67% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Bushido Wildcats 13%Mai Tai 87%
The model gave 87% on Mai Tai — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Bushido Wildcats 71%Mai Tai 29%
The model gave 71% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 51%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2