Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
6666#80 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9INE#80 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient6666 pick
38%43%
6666 · 4 mapsedge 9INE +5%9INE · 3 maps
Inferno9INE ban
25%60%
6666 · 4 mapsedge 9INE +35%9INE · 1 map
Dust26666 ban
50%38%
6666 · 0 mapsedge 6666 +12%9INE · 4 maps
Nuke9INE pick
40%57%
6666 · 1 mapedge 9INE +17%9INE · 3 maps
Anubis6666 ban
40%40%
6666 · 1 mapnearly even +0%9INE · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
50%40%
6666 · 0 mapsedge 6666 +10%9INE · 1 map
Mirage9INE ban
60%50%
6666 · 1 mapedge 6666 +10%9INE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban6666 remove Anubis
2. Ban9INE remove Mirage
3. Pick6666 take Ancient
4. Pick9INE take Nuke
5. Ban9INE remove Inferno
6. Ban6666 remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
6666 20%9INE 80%
The model gave 80% on 9INE — the map was taken by 9INE.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
6666 31%9INE 69%
The model gave 69% on 9INE — the map was taken by 9INE.
Model check result
Model favorite9INE · 80%
Series result9INE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2