Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
6666#80 in the world · loss 4:13series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 4:13
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 13:4The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
43%60%
6666 · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%ASTRAL · 21 map
Dust26666 ban
50%50%
6666 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 12 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
33%36%
6666 · 2 mapsnearly even -3%ASTRAL · 10 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
60%47%
6666 · 1 mapedge 6666 +13%ASTRAL · 11 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
50%31%
6666 · 0 mapsedge 6666 +19%ASTRAL · 9 maps
Anubis6666 ban
50%60%
6666 · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 6 maps
Default6666 ban
50%60%
6666 · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban6666 remove Dust2
2. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
3. Ban6666 remove Default
4. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
5. Ban6666 remove Anubis
6. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (43% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct4:13
6666 40%ASTRAL 60%
The model gave 60% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 71%
Series resultASTRAL 4:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1