ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#115 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fortress#217 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
53%40%
PCIFIC · 11 mapsedge PCIFIC +13%Fortress · 1 map
MirageFortress ban
44%25%
PCIFIC · 5 mapsedge PCIFIC +19%Fortress · 4 maps
CacheFortress ban
67%20%
PCIFIC · 2 mapsedge PCIFIC +47%Fortress · 6 maps
InfernoFortress pick
57%33%
PCIFIC · 3 mapsedge PCIFIC +24%Fortress · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%33%
PCIFIC · 3 mapsedge PCIFIC +24%Fortress · 5 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%33%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge PCIFIC +17%Fortress · 5 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
33%43%
PCIFIC · 2 mapsedge Fortress +10%Fortress · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickFortress take Inferno
5. BanFortress remove Cache
6. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (57% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
PCIFIC 88%Fortress 12%
The model gave 88% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by Fortress.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
PCIFIC 43%Fortress 57%
The model gave 57% on Fortress — the map was taken by Fortress.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 55%
Series resultFortress 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2