ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#103 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.pro#65 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
56%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 21 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +6%Virtus.pro · 18 maps
MirageVirtus.pro pick
57%59%
Inner Circle Academy · 10 mapsnearly even -2%Virtus.pro · 13 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
60%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 16 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Virtus.pro · 6 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
50%57%
Inner Circle Academy · 18 mapsedge Virtus.pro +7%Virtus.pro · 3 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
40%64%
Inner Circle Academy · 11 mapsedge Virtus.pro +24%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
CacheVirtus.pro ban
63%63%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
OverpassInner Circle Academy ban
50%58%
Inner Circle Academy · 0 mapsedge Virtus.pro +8%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
4. PickVirtus.pro take Mirage
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Cache
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Inner Circle Academy 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Inner Circle Academy 53%Virtus.pro 47%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 69%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2