ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#132 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#124 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEntropy pick
55%38%
Entropy · 27 mapsedge Entropy +17%Misa · 17 maps
Dust2Misa pick
22%45%
Entropy · 14 mapsedge Misa +23%Misa · 27 maps
AnubisEntropy ban
50%52%
Entropy · 10 mapsnearly even -2%Misa · 19 maps
Cachepossible decider
47%41%
Entropy · 15 mapsedge Entropy +6%Misa · 13 maps
AncientMisa ban
55%43%
Entropy · 18 mapsedge Entropy +12%Misa · 3 maps
InfernoMisa ban
45%50%
Entropy · 7 mapsedge Misa +5%Misa · 10 maps
NukeEntropy ban
43%53%
Entropy · 3 mapsedge Misa +10%Misa · 13 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Nuke
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickEntropy take Mirage
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Inferno
6. BanEntropy remove Anubis
DeciderCache (47% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Entropy 24%Misa 76%
The model gave 76% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Entropy 69%Misa 31%
The model gave 69% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
Entropy 48%Misa 52%
The model gave 52% on Misa — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 58%
Series resultEntropy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3