ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#102 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
38%50%
Permitta · 9 mapsedge Azuolas +12%Azuolas · 2 maps
MirageAzuolas ban
60%33%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Permitta +27%Azuolas · 2 maps
NukePermitta ban
45%60%
Permitta · 7 mapsedge Azuolas +15%Azuolas · 1 map
CachePermitta pick
70%50%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Permitta +20%Azuolas · 0 maps
AnubisAzuolas ban
63%50%
Permitta · 4 mapsedge Permitta +13%Azuolas · 0 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
29%50%
Permitta · 3 mapsedge Azuolas +21%Azuolas · 0 maps
DefaultAzuolas pick
33%50%
Permitta · 2 mapsedge Azuolas +17%Azuolas · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Dust2
2. BanAzuolas remove Anubis
3. PickPermitta take Cache
4. PickAzuolas take Default
5. BanAzuolas remove Mirage
6. BanPermitta remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:19
Permitta 39%Azuolas 61%
The model gave 61% on Azuolas — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
Permitta 73%Azuolas 27%
The model gave 73% on Permitta — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 76%
Series resultAzuolas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2