ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#66 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BAKS#99 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WBT pick
57%64%
WBT · 10 mapsedge BAKS +7%BAKS · 7 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
53%50%
WBT · 13 mapsnearly even +3%BAKS · 0 maps
MirageBAKS ban
43%43%
WBT · 10 mapsnearly even +0%BAKS · 3 maps
AncientWBT ban
58%71%
WBT · 8 mapsedge BAKS +13%BAKS · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%44%
WBT · 6 mapsedge WBT +16%BAKS · 5 maps
CacheBAKS pick
43%64%
WBT · 3 mapsedge BAKS +21%BAKS · 7 maps
InfernoWBT ban
60%50%
WBT · 1 mapedge WBT +10%BAKS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Inferno
2. BanBAKS remove Anubis
3. PickWBT take Dust2
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Mirage
6. BanWBT remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
WBT 28%BAKS 72%
The model gave 72% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
WBT 68%BAKS 32%
The model gave 68% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
WBT 36%BAKS 64%
The model gave 64% on BAKS — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 56%
Series resultWBT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3