ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#65 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WBT#66 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro ban
54%57%
Virtus.pro · 20 mapsnearly even -3%WBT · 10 maps
MirageVirtus.pro pick
59%43%
Virtus.pro · 13 mapsedge Virtus.pro +16%WBT · 10 maps
AnubisWBT pick
55%53%
Virtus.pro · 7 mapsnearly even +2%WBT · 13 maps
NukeWBT ban
64%64%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsnearly even +0%WBT · 7 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
63%62%
Virtus.pro · 4 mapsnearly even +1%WBT · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
58%60%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsnearly even -2%WBT · 1 map
CacheWBT ban
63%38%
Virtus.pro · 4 mapsedge Virtus.pro +25%WBT · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
2. BanWBT remove Cache
3. PickVirtus.pro take Mirage
4. PickWBT take Anubis
5. BanWBT remove Nuke
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (58% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:16
Virtus.pro 49%WBT 51%
The model gave 51% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Virtus.pro 50%WBT 50%
The model gave 50% on WBT — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Ancientprediction correct19:16
Virtus.pro 51%WBT 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 69%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3