Stake Ranked Episode 4 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PURE#126 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePURE pick
33%55%
Sangal · 2 mapsedge PURE +22%PURE · 7 maps
AnubisPURE ban
57%40%
Sangal · 3 mapsedge Sangal +17%PURE · 1 map
CacheSangal pick
60%50%
Sangal · 1 mapedge Sangal +10%PURE · 2 maps
InfernoPURE ban
50%29%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge Sangal +21%PURE · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%57%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge PURE +7%PURE · 3 maps
AncientSangal ban
50%50%
Sangal · 0 mapsnearly even +0%PURE · 2 maps
Dust2Sangal ban
40%60%
Sangal · 1 mapedge PURE +20%PURE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Ancient
2. BanPURE remove Anubis
3. PickSangal take Cache
4. PickPURE take Mirage
5. BanPURE remove Inferno
6. BanSangal remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Sangal 46%PURE 54%
The model gave 54% on PURE — the map was taken by Sangal.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Sangal 28%PURE 72%
The model gave 72% on PURE — the map was taken by PURE.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
Sangal 29%PURE 71%
The model gave 71% on PURE — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 54%
Series resultSangal 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3