Stake Ranked Episode 4 Open Qualifier · BO3
pre-match prediction
Sangal#107 in the worldseries probability
51%49%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
PURE#179 in the worldBefore the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePURE pick
33%55%
Sangal · 2 mapsedge PURE +22%PURE · 7 maps
AnubisPURE ban
57%40%
Sangal · 3 mapsedge Sangal +17%PURE · 1 map
CacheSangal pick
60%50%
Sangal · 1 mapedge Sangal +10%PURE · 2 maps
InfernoPURE ban
50%29%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge Sangal +21%PURE · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%57%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge PURE +7%PURE · 3 maps
AncientSangal ban
50%50%
Sangal · 0 mapsnearly even +0%PURE · 2 maps
Dust2Sangal ban
40%60%
Sangal · 1 mapedge PURE +20%PURE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Ancient
2. BanPURE remove Anubis
3. PickSangal take Cache
4. PickPURE take Mirage
5. BanPURE remove Inferno
6. BanSangal remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 57%)