Stake Ranked Episode 4 Open Qualifier · BO3
pre-match prediction
fnatic#39 in the worldseries probability
64%36%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
TTeletubisie
Before the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientfnatic pick
67%50%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +17%Teletubisie · 0 maps
AnubisTeletubisie ban
69%50%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +19%Teletubisie · 0 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
62%50%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +12%Teletubisie · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
64%50%
fnatic · 7 mapsedge fnatic +14%Teletubisie · 0 maps
MirageTeletubisie pick
56%50%
fnatic · 5 mapsedge fnatic +6%Teletubisie · 0 maps
InfernoTeletubisie ban
75%50%
fnatic · 4 mapsedge fnatic +25%Teletubisie · 0 maps
Overpassfnatic ban
40%50%
fnatic · 1 mapedge Teletubisie +10%Teletubisie · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Overpass
2. BanTeletubisie remove Inferno
3. Pickfnatic take Ancient
4. PickTeletubisie take Mirage
5. BanTeletubisie remove Anubis
6. Banfnatic remove Dust2
DeciderCache (64% / 50%)