FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#84 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 6:13
Without a Roofwin 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWithout a Roof ban
62%50%
SportsBetExpert · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +12%Without a Roof · 0 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
64%50%
SportsBetExpert · 7 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +14%Without a Roof · 0 maps
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
40%50%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%Without a Roof · 0 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
71%50%
SportsBetExpert · 3 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +21%Without a Roof · 0 maps
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
29%50%
SportsBetExpert · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +21%Without a Roof · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%50%
SportsBetExpert · 3 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +7%Without a Roof · 0 maps
OverpassSportsBetExpert ban
40%50%
SportsBetExpert · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +10%Without a Roof · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
4. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Overpass
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
SportsBetExpert 62%Without a Roof 38%
The model gave 62% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 56%
Series resultWithout a Roof 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1