FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
NuTorious#170 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 8:13
Wanted Goons#203 in the world · win 13:8The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
33%55%
NuTorious · 5 mapsedge Wanted Goons +22%Wanted Goons · 7 maps
MirageWanted Goons ban
57%38%
NuTorious · 3 mapsedge NuTorious +19%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
NukeWanted Goons ban
40%33%
NuTorious · 1 mapedge NuTorious +7%Wanted Goons · 5 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
50%40%
NuTorious · 4 mapsedge NuTorious +10%Wanted Goons · 1 map
Dust2NuTorious ban
50%38%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge NuTorious +12%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
OverpassNuTorious ban
50%57%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
AnubisNuTorious ban
40%40%
NuTorious · 1 mapnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
2. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
3. BanNuTorious remove Overpass
4. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
5. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
6. BanWanted Goons remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (33% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
NuTorious 29%Wanted Goons 71%
The model gave 71% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 55%
Series resultWanted Goons 8:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1