FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
LAG#116 in the world · win 13:6series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 13:6
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFor Fun ban
45%40%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +5%For Fun · 1 map
NukeFor Fun ban
60%40%
LAG · 6 mapsedge LAG +20%For Fun · 1 map
MirageLAG ban
50%50%
LAG · 4 mapsnearly even +0%For Fun · 0 maps
AncientLAG ban
29%50%
LAG · 3 mapsedge For Fun +21%For Fun · 0 maps
Dust2For Fun ban
71%50%
LAG · 3 mapsedge LAG +21%For Fun · 0 maps
AnubisLAG ban
40%50%
LAG · 1 mapedge For Fun +10%For Fun · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
LAG · 1 mapedge For Fun +10%For Fun · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Anubis
2. BanFor Fun remove Dust2
3. BanLAG remove Mirage
4. BanFor Fun remove Nuke
5. BanLAG remove Ancient
6. BanFor Fun remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
LAG 71%For Fun 29%
The model gave 71% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteFor Fun · 53%
Series resultLAG 13:6
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1