FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
regain#92 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 8:13
DETONATE#214 in the world · win 13:8The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageregain ban
50%50%
regain · 6 mapsnearly even +0%DETONATE · 4 maps
AnubisDETONATE ban
60%33%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +27%DETONATE · 5 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
50%60%
regain · 4 mapsedge DETONATE +10%DETONATE · 1 map
Dust2regain ban
50%40%
regain · 4 mapsedge regain +10%DETONATE · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%43%
regain · 2 mapsedge regain +7%DETONATE · 3 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%43%
regain · 0 mapsedge regain +7%DETONATE · 3 maps
CacheDETONATE ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%DETONATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
3. Banregain remove Mirage
4. BanDETONATE remove Anubis
5. Banregain remove Dust2
6. BanDETONATE remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
regain 57%DETONATE 43%
The model gave 57% on regain — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 68%
Series resultDETONATE 8:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1