FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
DETONATE#214 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 8:13
LAG#116 in the world · win 13:8The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG ban
50%45%
DETONATE · 4 mapsedge DETONATE +5%LAG · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
43%60%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge LAG +17%LAG · 6 maps
MirageLAG ban
50%50%
DETONATE · 4 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 4 maps
AnubisLAG ban
33%40%
DETONATE · 5 mapsedge LAG +7%LAG · 1 map
Dust2DETONATE ban
40%75%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge LAG +35%LAG · 4 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
60%29%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +31%LAG · 3 maps
DefaultDETONATE ban
50%40%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +10%LAG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
2. BanLAG remove Anubis
3. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
4. BanLAG remove Mirage
5. BanDETONATE remove Default
6. BanLAG remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (43% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
DETONATE 50%LAG 50%
The model gave 50% on DETONATE — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 67%
Series resultLAG 8:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1