FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#92 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SSkylineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageregain ban
50%50%
regain · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Skyline · 0 maps
Ancientregain pick
50%50%
regain · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Skyline · 0 maps
Dust2regain ban
50%50%
regain · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Skyline · 0 maps
InfernoSkyline pick
43%50%
regain · 3 mapsedge Skyline +7%Skyline · 0 maps
AnubisSkyline ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%Skyline · 0 maps
CacheSkyline ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%Skyline · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Mirage
2. BanSkyline remove Anubis
3. Pickregain take Ancient
4. PickSkyline take Inferno
5. BanSkyline remove Cache
6. Banregain remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
regain 47%Skyline 53%
The model gave 53% on Skyline — the map was taken by regain.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
regain 53%Skyline 47%
The model gave 53% on regain — the map was taken by Skyline.
Infernoprediction missed16:12
regain 43%Skyline 57%
The model gave 57% on Skyline — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 50%
Series resultregain 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3