FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2For Fun ban
40%50%
For Fun · 1 mapedge Kodex +10%Kodex · 0 maps
InfernoKodex ban
40%50%
For Fun · 1 mapedge Kodex +10%Kodex · 0 maps
NukeFor Fun pick
40%50%
For Fun · 1 mapedge Kodex +10%Kodex · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFor Fun remove Dust2
2. BanKodex remove Inferno
3. PickFor Fun take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
For Fun 47%Kodex 53%
The model gave 53% on Kodex — the map was taken by For Fun.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
For Fun 43%Kodex 57%
The model gave 57% on Kodex — the map was taken by For Fun.
Model check result
Model favoriteKodex · 61%
Series resultFor Fun 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2