FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
regain#92 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFor Fun pick
50%55%
For Fun · 0 mapsedge regain +5%regain · 7 maps
Ancientregain pick
60%44%
For Fun · 1 mapedge For Fun +16%regain · 5 maps
Dust2For Fun ban
40%50%
For Fun · 1 mapedge regain +10%regain · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%50%
For Fun · 1 mapedge regain +10%regain · 4 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%50%
For Fun · 2 mapsnearly even +0%regain · 0 maps
AnubisFor Fun ban
50%60%
For Fun · 0 mapsedge regain +10%regain · 1 map
Cacheregain ban
50%60%
For Fun · 0 mapsedge regain +10%regain · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFor Fun remove Anubis
2. Banregain remove Nuke
3. PickFor Fun take Mirage
4. Pickregain take Ancient
5. Banregain remove Cache
6. BanFor Fun remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
For Fun 43%regain 57%
The model gave 57% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
For Fun 37%regain 63%
The model gave 63% on regain — the map was taken by For Fun.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
For Fun 45%regain 55%
The model gave 55% on regain — the map was taken by For Fun.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 54%
Series resultFor Fun 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3