FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#84 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NuTorious#170 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
57%50%
SportsBetExpert · 10 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +7%NuTorious · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%40%
SportsBetExpert · 8 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +27%NuTorious · 1 map
MirageNuTorious pick
57%63%
SportsBetExpert · 3 mapsedge NuTorious +6%NuTorious · 4 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%30%
SportsBetExpert · 0 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +20%NuTorious · 6 maps
Dust2NuTorious ban
40%50%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge NuTorious +10%NuTorious · 0 maps
AnubisNuTorious ban
75%40%
SportsBetExpert · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +35%NuTorious · 1 map
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
29%50%
SportsBetExpert · 3 mapsedge NuTorious +21%NuTorious · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
2. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
3. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
4. PickNuTorious take Mirage
5. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
DeciderNuke (67% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
SportsBetExpert 54%NuTorious 46%
The model gave 54% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
SportsBetExpert 84%NuTorious 16%
The model gave 84% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 69%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2