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FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoDETONATE pick
50%60%
DETONATE · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%SportsBetExpert · 11 maps
NukeDETONATE ban
43%67%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +24%SportsBetExpert · 8 maps
AnubisSportsBetExpert pick
33%78%
DETONATE · 5 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +45%SportsBetExpert · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
44%57%
DETONATE · 5 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +13%SportsBetExpert · 3 maps
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
40%40%
DETONATE · 1 mapnearly even +0%SportsBetExpert · 6 maps
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
50%29%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +21%SportsBetExpert · 3 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
60%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +10%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
3. PickDETONATE take Inferno
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Anubis
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
6. BanDETONATE remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (44% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
DETONATE 43%SportsBetExpert 57%
The model gave 57% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
DETONATE 69%SportsBetExpert 31%
The model gave 69% on DETONATE — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 71%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2