FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
60%50%
SportsBetExpert · 11 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%For Fun · 2 maps
NukeFor Fun pick
67%57%
SportsBetExpert · 8 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%For Fun · 3 maps
Dust2For Fun ban
33%33%
SportsBetExpert · 5 mapsnearly even +0%For Fun · 2 maps
AnubisFor Fun ban
78%50%
SportsBetExpert · 5 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +28%For Fun · 0 maps
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
38%50%
SportsBetExpert · 4 mapsedge For Fun +12%For Fun · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%60%
SportsBetExpert · 3 mapsnearly even -3%For Fun · 1 map
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%67%
SportsBetExpert · 0 mapsedge For Fun +17%For Fun · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
2. BanFor Fun remove Anubis
3. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
4. PickFor Fun take Nuke
5. BanFor Fun remove Dust2
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
DeciderMirage (57% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
SportsBetExpert 44%For Fun 56%
The model gave 56% on For Fun — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
SportsBetExpert 80%For Fun 20%
The model gave 80% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by For Fun.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
SportsBetExpert 60%For Fun 40%
The model gave 60% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 80%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3